Voter Behavior During COVID-19
By: Brian Vislar
(Credit: Absent84; Adobe Stock)
The political turmoil that often occurs during election years has been amplified this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Extensive research has taken place trying to explain how rational individuals behave during crises. The responsiveness and effectiveness of governments in trying to mitigate the pandemic has created a feedback for citizens. A study by the VoxEU & CEPR using data from France indicated that localities that experienced ‘harder lockdown’ tend to vote for incumbent mayors who enact those policies and voter turnout seems to increase in these localities (Giommoni & Loumeau, 2020). From this study you can deduct a relationship between lockdowns and voting behavior. Although, ‘voting behavior’ might be considered a misnomer as voters vote as individuals not as aggregates.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election also presented voters in El Paso to vote for a new mayor. Former Mayor Oscar Leeser took 42% of the vote and the runner up was Mayor Dee Margo at 24%, with the rest being taken by other challengers. The mayoral election was set up for a runoff in December 12 and although the winner has yet to be declared, Dee Margo’s poor performance seems to correlate with the finding of the study. Mayor Dee Margo initially worked with other local officials to declare a “Stay Home, Work Safe” order that shut down El Paso during April and May. However, during the month of October the El Paso Mayor and the El Paso County Judge seemed to disagree about a new lockdown in the face of rising cases and eventually the lockdown only lasted a few days due to legal obstacles. The political situation is different in France than in the United States, so analogies of the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
Another study by the same organization also seems to indicate a tradeoff between economic performance and health outcomes (Eichenbaum, Rebelo, & Tranbandt, 2020). This is important to consider because both of those variables will inevitably impact electoral outcomes. Although lockdowns seem to reduce the number of cases and mitigate the strain on the health sector, it is more efficient to have massive testing and quarantining of individuals which minimizes the impact of these measures on the economy and minimizes the social costs.
The disagreements between El Paso Mayor, Dee Margo and El Paso County Judge, Ricardo Samaniego seem to be due to political polarization as both individuals had worked together in March and April. In the elections only the mayor was up for reelection while the county judge was not, so the electoral performance of the mayor indicates disapproval or approval in the local government’s ability to contain infections. Another aspect that has occurred due to COVID-19, is a “rally-around-the flag” effect for incumbents that effectively enforce lockdowns (Blais, Bol, Giani, & Loewen, 2020). The research indicated that the rallying effect favors incumbents. El Paso never underwent a strict lockdown when cases were increasing drastically, and this seems to have resulted in a large social and economic cost. Mayor Dee Margo’s failure to enforce the stay-at-home order issued by the county judge in October seems to have backfired for the time being as it will be extremely difficult for him to win back popular approval in time for the runoff election.
Despite voting being an individual’s choice, the aggregate seems to have been influenced by the pandemic and the response to controlling the said pandemic. Lockdowns seem to not only provide people with more time on their hands, it also seems to give them the time to reflect on their choices and choose the candidate that most aligns with their own views.
References:
https://voxeu.org/article/trade-between-economic-and-health-outcomes-covid-19-epidemic
https://voxeu.org/article/rallying-effect-lockdowns
https://voxeu.org/article/lockdowns-and-voting-behaviour-during-covid-19-pandemic
https://kvia.com/news/el-paso/2020/11/04/el-paso-mayoral-election-runoff-vote-set-for-dec-12
The political turmoil that often occurs during election years has been amplified this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Extensive research has taken place trying to explain how rational individuals behave during crises. The responsiveness and effectiveness of governments in trying to mitigate the pandemic has created a feedback for citizens. A study by the VoxEU & CEPR using data from France indicated that localities that experienced ‘harder lockdown’ tend to vote for incumbent mayors who enact those policies and voter turnout seems to increase in these localities (Giommoni & Loumeau, 2020). From this study you can deduct a relationship between lockdowns and voting behavior. Although, ‘voting behavior’ might be considered a misnomer as voters vote as individuals not as aggregates.
The 2020 U.S. presidential election also presented voters in El Paso to vote for a new mayor. Former Mayor Oscar Leeser took 42% of the vote and the runner up was Mayor Dee Margo at 24%, with the rest being taken by other challengers. The mayoral election was set up for a runoff in December 12 and although the winner has yet to be declared, Dee Margo’s poor performance seems to correlate with the finding of the study. Mayor Dee Margo initially worked with other local officials to declare a “Stay Home, Work Safe” order that shut down El Paso during April and May. However, during the month of October the El Paso Mayor and the El Paso County Judge seemed to disagree about a new lockdown in the face of rising cases and eventually the lockdown only lasted a few days due to legal obstacles. The political situation is different in France than in the United States, so analogies of the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
Another study by the same organization also seems to indicate a tradeoff between economic performance and health outcomes (Eichenbaum, Rebelo, & Tranbandt, 2020). This is important to consider because both of those variables will inevitably impact electoral outcomes. Although lockdowns seem to reduce the number of cases and mitigate the strain on the health sector, it is more efficient to have massive testing and quarantining of individuals which minimizes the impact of these measures on the economy and minimizes the social costs.
The disagreements between El Paso Mayor, Dee Margo and El Paso County Judge, Ricardo Samaniego seem to be due to political polarization as both individuals had worked together in March and April. In the elections only the mayor was up for reelection while the county judge was not, so the electoral performance of the mayor indicates disapproval or approval in the local government’s ability to contain infections. Another aspect that has occurred due to COVID-19, is a “rally-around-the flag” effect for incumbents that effectively enforce lockdowns (Blais, Bol, Giani, & Loewen, 2020). The research indicated that the rallying effect favors incumbents. El Paso never underwent a strict lockdown when cases were increasing drastically, and this seems to have resulted in a large social and economic cost. Mayor Dee Margo’s failure to enforce the stay-at-home order issued by the county judge in October seems to have backfired for the time being as it will be extremely difficult for him to win back popular approval in time for the runoff election.
Despite voting being an individual’s choice, the aggregate seems to have been influenced by the pandemic and the response to controlling the said pandemic. Lockdowns seem to not only provide people with more time on their hands, it also seems to give them the time to reflect on their choices and choose the candidate that most aligns with their own views.
References:
https://voxeu.org/article/trade-between-economic-and-health-outcomes-covid-19-epidemic
https://voxeu.org/article/rallying-effect-lockdowns
https://voxeu.org/article/lockdowns-and-voting-behaviour-during-covid-19-pandemic
https://kvia.com/news/el-paso/2020/11/04/el-paso-mayoral-election-runoff-vote-set-for-dec-12